G. Rosas and A. Lucardi, “Jumping Ship or Jumping on the Bandwagon: When Do Local Politicians Support National Candidates?”, Political Science Research and Methods, forthcoming. Local politicians are often expected to mobilize voters on behalf of copartisan candidates for national office. Yet this requirement is difficult to enforce because the effort of local politicians cannot be […]
Is the Incumbent Curse the Incumbent’s Fault?
A. Lucardi and G. Rosas, “Is the Incumbent Curse the Incumbent’s Fault? Strategic Behavior and Negative Incumbency Effects in Young Democracies”, Electoral Studies, 44, 2016. Why are incumbents in young democracies cursed? The most convincing explanation emphasizes the role of rent-seeking on the part of politicians, which induces voters to throw them out of office before […]
Los números de la guerra: ¿error de cálculo político o estadístico?
G. Rosas, “Los números de la guerra: ¿error de cálculo político o estadístico?” Blog de la redacción de Nexos, January 5, 2012. Contrary to the conclusions of analysts that resort to sophisticated “matching” techniques, these estimators do not lead to the unequivocal conclusion that military involvement increases the number of violent deaths in Mexico’s drug war, […]
Gubernatorial Effects on the Voting Behavior of National Legislators
G. Rosas and J. Langston, “Gubernatorial Effects on the Voting Behavior of National Legislators”, Journal of Politics, 73 (2), 2011. Are subnational political elites, such as governors, capable of affecting the voting behavior of national representatives even in the face of high legislative discipline? We address this question by estimating the exogenous causal effect of gubernatorial […]
Non-Ignorable Abstentions in Mexico’s Instituto Federal Electoral
G. Rosas and Y. Shomer, “Non-Ignorable Abstentions in Mexico’s Instituto Federal Electoral“, in E. Aragonés, C. Beviá, H. Llavador, and N. Schofield (eds.), The Political Economy of Democracy, Fundación BBVA, 2009.
Partisanship in Non-Partisan Electoral Agencies and Democratic Compliance
F. Estevez, E. Magar and G. Rosas, “Partisanship in Non-Partisan Electoral Agencies and Democratic Compliance: Evidence from Mexico’s Federal Electoral Institute”, Electoral Studies, 27 (2), 2008. Scholars argue that electoral management bodies staffed by autonomous, non-partisan experts are best for producing credible and fair elections. We inspect the voting record of Mexico’s Instituto Federal Electoral (IFE), an ostensibly […]
Foreign Direct Investment and Income Inequality in Mexico, 1990-2000
N. Jensen and G. Rosas, “Foreign Direct Investment and Income Inequality in Mexico, 1990-2000”, International Organization, 61, 2007. In this article we explore the relationship between the investments of multinational corporations (foreign direct investment) and income inequality in Mexico. We argue that Mexico’s liberalization of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in the 1990s provides a natural […]