Working Papers

Moment Forests

Working Papers

We propose a new methodology, moment forests, that allows parameters in a broad class of moment-based models to vary across groups of observations on the basis of observable characteristics. Leveraging a generalization of classification trees, the estimator first assigns observations to disjoint subgroups sharing common parameters, and then estimates an empirical model within each group. We prove the uniform consistency of this estimator and show that standard rates of convergence apply to the second stage estimates under weak regularity conditions. We showcase our approach by estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in a regression discontinuity design in a development setting.

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Subsidy Targeting with Market Power

Working Papers

In-kind public transfers are commonly targeted based on observable characteristics of potential recipients. Increasingly, goods subsidized by such transfers are provided by private firms. We show that when the subsidized good is provided by intermediaries with market power a subsidy-induced “demographic externality” arises and can distort the incidence and efficiency of targeted transfers unless perfect […]

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