“Adaptive Inventories: A Practical Guide for Applied Researchers.” With Erin Rossiter. Under contract with Cambridge University Press.

Published Articles

Lyons, Benjamin A., Jacob M. Montgomery, Andrew M. Guess, Brendan Nyhan, and Jason Reifler. Forthcoming. “Overconfidence in news judgments is associated with false news susceptibility.” Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences.

Chen, Yehu, Roman Garnett, and Jacob M. Montgomery. Accepted pending replication. Accepted pending replication. “Polls, Context, and Time: A Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting Model for US Senate Elections.” Political Analysis.

Ying, Luwei, Jacob M. Montgomery, and Brandon M. Stewart. Accepted pending replication. “Topics, Concepts, and Measurement: A Crowdsourced Procedure for Validating Topics as Measures.” Political Analysis.

Berlinski, Nicolas, Margaret Doyle, Andrew M. Guess, Gabrielle Levy, Benjamin Lyons, Jacob Montgomery, Brendan Nyhan, and Jason Reifler. Forthcoming. “The Effects of Unsubstantiated Claims of Voter Fraud on Confidence in Elections.” Journal of Experimental Political Science.
Media coverage: The Atlantic, ProPublica

Montgomery, Jacob M. and Min Hee Seo. Forthcoming. “Closeness and Strategic Participation: Does the Closeness of the U.S. Presidential Election Shape Where College Students Register to Vote?” Journal of Politics.

Muraoka, Taishi, Jacob Montgomery, Christopher Lucas, and Margit Tavits. 2021. “Love and Anger in Global Party Politics: Facebook Reactions to Political Party Posts in 79 Democracies.” Journal of Quantitative Description: Digital Media. 1: 1-38.

Jacob M. Montgomery and Erin L. Rossiter. Forthcoming. “So Many Questions, So Little Time: Adaptive Personality Inventories for Survey Research.” Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology.

Duck-Mayr, JBrandon, Roman Garnett, and Jacob M. Montgomery. 2020. “GPIRT: A Gaussian Process Model for Item Response Theory.” Proceedings of the Thirty-Sixth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence.

Guess, Andrew, Michael Lerner, Benjamin Lyons, Jacob Montgomery, Brendan Nyhan, Jason Reifler, and Neelanjan Sircar. 2020. “A digital media literacy intervention increases discernment between mainstream and false news in the United States and India.” Proceedings of the National Academies of Science 117 (27): 15536-15545.

Andrew M Guess, Dominique Lockett, Benjamin Lyons, Jacob M Montgomery, Brendan Nyhan, Jason Reifler. 2020. “Fake news may have limited effects beyond increasing beliefs in false claims.” Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review 1 (1).

Tucker, Patrick D., Jacob M. Montgomery, and Steven S. Smith. 2019. “Party Identification in the Age of Obama: Evidence on the Sources of Stability and Systematic Change in Party Identification from a Long-Term Panel Survey.” Political Research Quarterly 72 (2): 309-328.

Hollenbach, Florian, Jacob M. Montgomery, and Adriana Crespo-Tenorio. 2019. “Bayesian Versus Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Treatment Effects in Bivariate Probit Instrumental Variable Models.” Political Science Research and Methods 7 (3): 651-659.

Montgomery, Jacob M., and Santiago Olivella. 2018. “Tree-Based Models for Political Science Data.” American Journal of Political Science 62 (3): 729-744.

Montgomery, Jacob M., Brendan Nyhan, and Michelle Torres. 2018 “How Conditioning on Post-Treatment variabels Can Ruin Your Experiment and What to do About It.” American Journal of Political Science 62: (3): 760-775.

Butler, Ryden, Brendan Nyhan, Jacob M. Montgomery, and Michelle Torres. “Revisiting White Backlash: How Race Affects Death Penalty Opinion Today.” Research and Politics 5 (1).

Carlson, David and Jacob M. Montgomery. 2017. “A Pairwise Comparison Framework for Fast, Flexible, and Reliable Human Coding of Political Texts.” American Political Science Review 111 (4): 835-843.

Montgomery, Jacob M., and Brendan Nyhan. 2017. “The Effects of Congressional Staff Networks in the U.S. House of Representatives.” Journal of Politics 79 (3): 745-761.

Freeze, Melanie and Jacob M. Montgomery. 2016. “Static Stability and Evolving Constraint: Preference Stability and Ideological Structure in the Mass Public.” American Politics Research 44 (3): 415-447.

Hazelton, Morgan, Jacob M. Montgomery, and Brendan Nyhan. 2016. “Does Public Financing Affect Judicial Behavior? Evidence from the North Carolina Supreme Court.” American Politics Research 44 (4): 587-617.

Montgomery, Jacob M., Santiago Olivella, Joshua D. Potter, and Brian Crisp. “An Informed Forensics Approach to Detecting Vote Irregularities.” Political Analysis 23 (4): 488-505.

Nyhan, Brendan and Jacob M. Montgomery. 2015. “Connecting the Candidates: Consultant Networks and the Diffusion of Campaign Strategy in American Congressional Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 49 (2): 292-308.

Montgomery, Jacob M., Florian M. Hollenbach, and Michael D. Ward. 2014. “Calibrating Ensemble Forecasting Models with Sparse Data in the Social Sciences.” International Journal of Forecasting 31 (3): 930-942

Aldrich, John H., Jacob M. Montgomery, and David Sparks. 2014. “Polarization and Ideology: Partisan Sources of Low Dimensionality in Scaled Roll-Call Analyses.” Political Analysis 22 (4): 435-456.

Montgomery, Jacob M. and Josh Cutler. 2013. “Computerized Adaptive Testing for Public Opinion Surveys.” Political Analysis 21 (2): 141-171.

Montgomery, Jacob M., Florian Hollenbach, and Michael D. Ward. 2012. “Improving Predictions Using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging.” Political Analysis 20 (3): 271-291.

Aldrich, John H., Jacob M. Montgomery, and Wendy Wood. 2011. “Turnout as a Habit.” Political Behavior 33 (4): 535-563.

Montgomery, Jacob M. and Brendan Nyhan. 2010. “Bayesian Model Averaging: Theoretical Developments and Practical Applications.” Political Analysis 18 (2): 245-270.

Montgomery, Jacob M., Jerry Reiter, Alexandra Cooper, and Shuo Guan. 2008. “Nonresponse Bias on Dimensions of Political Activity Amongst Political Elites.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 20 (4): 494-506.

Montgomery, Jacob M., Kristie Long Foley, and Mark Wolfson. 2006. “Enforcing the Minimum Drinking Age: State, Local, and Agency Characteristics Associated With Compliance Checks and Cops in Shops Programs.” Addiction 101 (2): 223-231.

Edited Publications

Hollenbach, Florian and Jacob M. Montgomery. Forthcoming. “Bayesian Model Selection, Model Comparison, and Model Averaging.” SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations. eds. Luigi Curini and Robert Franzese.

Moore, Ryan T. and Jacob M. Montgomery. 2014. “Building and Maintaining R Packages with devtools and roxygen2” The Political Methodologist 22 (1): 26-31.

Gomez, Brad T. and Jacob M. Montgomery. 2013. ‘Why John Aldrich?” PS: Political Science and Politics 46 (4): 857-864.

Montgomery, Jacob M., Florian Hollenbach, and Michael D. Ward. 2013. “Aggregation and Ensembles: Principled Combinations of Data.” PS: Political Science and Politics 46 (1): 43-44.

Montgomery, Jacob M., Florian Hollenbach, and Michael D. Ward. 2012. “Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US Presidential Election.” PS: Political Science and Politics 45 (4): 651-654.

Working Papers

Ends Against the Middle: Scaling Votes When Ideological Opposites Behave the Same for Antithetical Reasons.” With JBrandon Duck-Mayr.

(Bolded co-authors were WUSTL graduate students when project began)