Targeted Implementation of Pre-Exposure Treatment Yields 13x More HIV Cases Prevented Than Treating the Entire Population 

The above figure shows our continuous model for the HIV epidemic in the United States. When running our model forward, it can be seen that at the steady state of 500,000 people in the Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis state (PrEP), the number of people infected with HIV and on Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) drives to zero by the year 2038. Further, we have shown in our analyses that when PrEP is targeted to at-risk populations, such as men that have sex with men (MSM), it is 13x more effective in its ability to prevent new HIV cases. 

Why does this matter?

 

HIV/AIDS impacts over 36.7 million people all over the world. In this project, we use a Kermack-McKendrick compartmental modeling approach to address the HIV epidemic. We work to incorporate a new form of treatment, known as Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Treatment (PrEP), into the model, in an attempt to show how this treatment changes the way HIV/AIDS impacts a population. This website serves to show our model, process, and results, and seeks to explore how mathematical epidemiology can be used to solve real world problems. 

Full report is available upon request. If desired, please email lplambeck@wustl.edu or nirek@wustl.edu.